Persona:
Martín García, Rodrigo

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0000-0002-9065-7481
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Martín García
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Rodrigo
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2009 - 200912010 - 201922020 - 20239
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Mostrando 1 - 10 de 12
  • Miniatura
    Publicación
    Cointegration between high base metals prices and backwardation: Getting ready for the metals super-cycle
    (Elsevier, 2023-03) Galán Gutiérrez, Juan Antonio; Labeaga Azcona, José María; Martín García, Rodrigo
    This paper is devoted to test agents’ behavior in the markets of hard commodities by trying to distinguish between managing future price structures to hedge their positions and speculating in on prices. We do a triple analysis: cointegration on the time series, structural breaks over the full time series and panel data. The analysis of the full series and the identification of structural breaks allows us to discover the connection between high prices and the negative futures price structure (backwardation) in rising prices scenarios of tin, copper, aluminium, and zinc. Moreover, we obtain that the base metals full matrix (price and futures price structure) is cointegrated in our analysis that uses panel data methods. We believe that these results are important for agents in the markets, as commodity traders or brokers, to maximize profits in their hedging positions.
  • Miniatura
    Publicación
    Cointegration between the structure of copper futures prices and Brexit
    (Elsevier, 2021-06) Galán Gutiérrez, Juan Antonio; Martín García, Rodrigo
    In copper futures trading, ‘contango’ (or ‘forwardation’) is the condition in which the futures price enjoys a premium over the spot price on the London Metal Exchange at the close of the second ring and ‘backwardation’ the contrary. That spread or difference between the two prices is affected by fundamentals such as supply and demand as well as by political, social, environmental and macroeconomic risks, hereafter grouped under the term ‘financialisation factors’. Based on analysis of variations in the BUKHI50P stock index that monitors the impact of Brexit on UK companies, this study shows that in the context of a market shortage, Brexit-related macroeconomics and their effect on local companies are cointegrated with the structure of copper futures prices. Guidelines are also provided for traders on when to short- and when to long-sell to capitalise on the structure of copper futures prices under simultaneous market shortage and adverse macroeconomic circumstances.
  • Miniatura
    Publicación
    Red Innovación Docente en Finanzas. Un modelo docente aplicado a las finanzas
    (2009-09) Pablo Redondo, Rosana De; Arguedas Sanz, Raquel; González Arias, Julio; Martín García, Rodrigo
  • Miniatura
    Publicación
    Fundamentals vs. Financialization during Extreme Events: From Backwardation to Contango, a Copper Market Analysis during the COVID-19 Pandemic
    (MDPI, 2022-02-11) Galán Gutiérrez, Juan Antonio; Martín García, Rodrigo
    The COVID-19 pandemic has shocked commodities markets in general and base metals markets in particular. The market turmoil made it very difficult to act in the physical market, given the impossibility of establishing or maintaining physical and/or financial positions in a context of high uncertainty. This has happened both in different moments of the development of the pandemic and in geographically different frames. That is why this contribution tries to explain the evolution of warehouses and copper price structure and its utility for hedging in the context of an extreme event. To that end, Granger causality has been used to test whether, during the COVID-19 first wave, the pandemic evolution is cointegrated on one hand with copper futures price structure and, on the other, with the incremental levels of copper stocks. Using 102 official copper prices on London Metal Exchange (LME) trading days, between 13 January 2020 and 5 June 2020 (once the most severe effects of the first wave had been overcome), it was demonstrated that, during the first COVID-19 wave in Europe, the weekly death index variation was cointegrated with the copper future price structure. It has been proven that, in this timelapse, contango in futures price structure has increased its value, and the incremental levels of stock in copper LME warehouses are linked with a stable contango structure. In short, we find that fundamental market effects predominate, in a context in which commodities used to be more financialized. This leads market players, such as traders, miners, and transformers, to move exposures in their hedging structures, under such extreme event situations, in favor of or against either contango or backwardation, so as to derive value from them.
  • Miniatura
    Publicación
    Cointegration between the structure of copper futures prices and Brexit
    (Elsevier, 2021-01-15) Galán Gutiérrez, Juan Antonio; Martín García, Rodrigo
    In copper futures trading, ‘contango’ (or ‘forwardation’) is the condition in which the futures price enjoys a premium over the spot price on the London Metal Exchange at the close of the second ring and ‘backwardation’ the contrary. That spread or difference between the two prices is affected by fundamentals such as supply and demand as well as by political, social, environmental and macroeconomic risks, hereafter grouped under the term ‘financialisation factors’. Based on analysis of variations in the BUKHI50P stock index that monitors the impact of Brexit on UK companies, this study shows that in the context of a market shortage, Brexit-related macroeconomics and their effect on local companies are cointegrated with the structure of copper futures prices. Guidelines are also provided for traders on when to short- and when to long-sell to capitalise on the structure of copper futures prices under simultaneous market shortage and adverse macroeconomic circumstances.
  • Miniatura
    Publicación
    Innovation in the University: Perception, Monitoring and Satisfaction
    (IEEE, 2018-08-03) Vicente Vírseda, Juan Antonio; Arguedas Sanz, Raquel; Martín García, Rodrigo; González Arias, Julio
    A blended learning teaching experience conducted at Spain's National Distance University is described. The project consisted of integrating technology (a virtual learning platform) and teaching methodologies (multimedia contents, weekly deliverables, continuous self-assessment, mentoring, a four-month timetable, and webinars) to enhance student engagement, performance, and satisfaction. A statistical study showed that self-assessment and professor monitoring are key issues in students' initial perception and ultimate satisfaction as well as the most effective tools for preventing dropout. Project participants had a lower dropout rate and higher grades than non-participants.
  • Miniatura
    Publicación
    Cointegration between the structure of copper futures prices and Brexit
    (Elsevier, 2021-06) Galán Gutiérrez, Juan Antonio; Martín García, Rodrigo
    In copper futures trading, ‘contango’ (or ‘forwardation’) is the condition in which the futures price enjoys a premium over the spot price on the London Metal Exchange at the close of the second ring and ‘backwardation’ the contrary. That spread or difference between the two prices is affected by fundamentals such as supply and demand as well as by political, social, environmental and macroeconomic risks, hereafter grouped under the term ‘financialisation factors’. Based on analysis of variations in the BUKHI50P stock index that monitors the impact of Brexit on UK companies, this study shows that in the context of a market shortage, Brexit-related macroeconomics and their effect on local companies are cointegrated with the structure of copper futures prices. Guidelines are also provided for traders on when to short- and when to long-sell to capitalise on the structure of copper futures prices under simultaneous market shortage and adverse macroeconomic circumstances.
  • Miniatura
    Publicación
    Patrón de comportamiento explicativo de las ofertas públicas de adquisición de acciones en el sector inmobiliario. El caso de España
    (Elsevier, 2017-02-07) González Arias, Julio; Arguedas Sanz, Raquel; Martín García, Rodrigo
    La tendencia alcista del sector inmobiliario espa˜nol (2000-2007) provocó el crecimiento excesivo de muchas empresas, principalmente mediante adquisiciones. Esta investigación pretende identificar patrones de comportamiento para la realización de OPAs en el sector inmobiliario espa˜ nol, particularmente castigado por la crisis financiera. Para ello, se ha analizado un conjunto de 20 variables económico-financieras y su relación con la participación de las compa˜nías cotizadas del sector en este tipo de operaciones, para un total de 354 casos para el periodo 2000-2012, como adquirentes y adquiridas. Para ello, se ha empleado una metodología en dos etapas. En primer lugar, se ha aplicado el Método de Componentes Principales para acotar las variables de estudio consideradas con mayor capacidad explicativa. En segundo lugar, se ha construido un modelo predictivo basado en árboles de decisión, concretamente de tipo CHAID, que permite categorizar el conjunto de empresas analizadas y discriminar patrones de comportamiento. Los cinco factores principales con mayor capacidad explicativa son: a) liquidez, solvencia y capacidad de endeudamiento; b) tama˜no; c) resultado económico; d) capacidad operativa, y e) resultado financiero. De hecho, los dos primeros explican conjuntamente en torno al 70% de la variable dependiente, considerando principalmente a empresas adquirentes. El modelo propuesto cuenta con un nivel de explicación global cercano al 80%. El porcentaje restante que no explica el modelo responde fundamentalmente a cuestiones de tipo estratégico, de especulación financiera e intereses particulares, entre otros factores que concurren en la toma de decisiones.
  • Miniatura
    Publicación
    Fundamentals vs. Financialization during Extreme Events: From Backwardation to Contango, a Copper Market Analysis during the COVID-19 Pandemic
    (MDPI, 2022-02-11) Galán Gutiérrez, Juan Antonio; Martín García, Rodrigo
    The COVID-19 pandemic has shocked commodities markets in general and base metals markets in particular. The market turmoil made it very difficult to act in the physical market, given the impossibility of establishing or maintaining physical and/or financial positions in a context of high uncertainty. This has happened both in different moments of the development of the pandemic and in geographically different frames. That is why this contribution tries to explain the evolution of warehouses and copper price structure and its utility for hedging in the context of an extreme event. To that end, Granger causality has been used to test whether, during the COVID-19 first wave, the pandemic evolution is cointegrated on one hand with copper futures price structure and, on the other, with the incremental levels of copper stocks. Using 102 official copper prices on London Metal Exchange (LME) trading days, between 13 January 2020 and 5 June 2020 (once the most severe effects of the first wave had been overcome), it was demonstrated that, during the first COVID-19 wave in Europe, the weekly death index variation was cointegrated with the copper future price structure. It has been proven that, in this timelapse, contango in futures price structure has increased its value, and the incremental levels of stock in copper LME warehouses are linked with a stable contango structure. In short, we find that fundamental market effects predominate, in a context in which commodities used to be more financialized. This leads market players, such as traders, miners, and transformers, to move exposures in their hedging structures, under such extreme event situations, in favor of or against either contango or backwardation, so as to derive value from them.
  • Miniatura
    Publicación
    Cointegration between high base metals prices and backwardation: Getting ready for the metals super-cycle
    (Elsevier, 2023-03) Galán Gutiérrez, Juan Antonio; Labeaga Azcona, José María; Martín García, Rodrigo
    This paper is devoted to test agents’ behavior in the markets of hard commodities by trying to distinguish between managing future price structures to hedge their positions and speculating in on prices. We do a triple analysis: cointegration on the time series, structural breaks over the full time series and panel data. The analysis of the full series and the identification of structural breaks allows us to discover the connection between high prices and the negative futures price structure (backwardation) in rising prices scenarios of tin, copper, aluminium, and zinc. Moreover, we obtain that the base metals full matrix (price and futures price structure) is cointegrated in our analysis that uses panel data methods. We believe that these results are important for agents in the markets, as commodity traders or brokers, to maximize profits in their hedging positions.