Publicación: A proposed solution to the public debt crisis (2007-2016) and the one created as a consequence of Covid-19
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Franquet Bernis, Josép María
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En los últimos tiempos, y más concretamente desde el estallido de la crisis económica en el 2007, tanto la prima de riesgo comparativa con la deuda germana como los elevados tipos de interés a pagar vienen representando acuciantes y recurrentes problemas para la deuda pública de numerosos países del sur de Europa. El Gobierno español se vio obligado entonces a solicitar la ayuda del BCE para que el fondo de rescate comunitario inyectase dinero en la maltrecha banca española. Ahora, a las puertas del tercer decenio del siglo XXI, toda esta problemática se verá agudizada, a escala mundial, por la crisis del coronavirus COVID-19 y la subsiguiente recesión económica causada por dicha insospechada pandemia. El problema de la deuda pública tiene su origen en el salvamento de bancos, cajas de ahorro y empresas a consecuencia de la burbuja inmobiliaria que reventó en USA y poco después en nuestro país. Para poder financiar estos generosos “regalos”, algunos Estados se han tenido que endeudar más de la cuenta. Por otra parte, el BCE, durante largos periodos de tiempo no compró deuda pública. Ésta es la razón de que la prima de riesgo española subiera por las nubes. Mientras el BCE no compre generosamente deuda pública, o no se tomen medidas adecuadas como las que aquí se proponen por el autor de este artículo, ésta continuará siendo vulnerable a la especulación incansable de los mercados financieros. Estas medidas pueden concretarse en dos: a) la “REGLA DEL 10”, que afecta a los tipos de interés de la deuda y b) la “REGLA DE EQUILIBRIO” del flujo de deuda, que afecta al principal o nominal de la deuda.
In recent times, and more particularly since the outbreak of the economic crisis in 2007, the risk premium rate in comparison with the German bonds together with the high interest rates paid mean an important and recurring problem for many countries of southern Europe. In addition the Government requested help from the ECB so that the European rescue fund brings money to the Spanish banks that are under severe difficulties. Now, on the threshold of the third decade of the 21st century, all this problem will be exacerbated, worldwide, by the crisis of the coronavirus COVID-19 and the subsequent economic recession caused by said unsuspected pandemic. The public debt problem has its origin in the need to give bail to the banks, savings banks, and other companies as a consequence of the real estate bubble that busted in the United States and afterwards in many other countries. In order to finance those “presents” some countries had to indebt themselves in excess. On the other side, the ECB, during a long period of time did not buy public debt. This is the reason why the Spanish premium rate is so high. If the ECB does not buy generously public debt, or the measures proposed by the author of this paper are not adopted, the Spanish public debt will be subject to the tireless speculation of the financial markets. Those measures could be confined to these two: a) “RULE OF 10”, that affect the debt interest rates, and b) the “RULE OF BALANCE” of debt flow, that affects the face value of the debt.
In recent times, and more particularly since the outbreak of the economic crisis in 2007, the risk premium rate in comparison with the German bonds together with the high interest rates paid mean an important and recurring problem for many countries of southern Europe. In addition the Government requested help from the ECB so that the European rescue fund brings money to the Spanish banks that are under severe difficulties. Now, on the threshold of the third decade of the 21st century, all this problem will be exacerbated, worldwide, by the crisis of the coronavirus COVID-19 and the subsequent economic recession caused by said unsuspected pandemic. The public debt problem has its origin in the need to give bail to the banks, savings banks, and other companies as a consequence of the real estate bubble that busted in the United States and afterwards in many other countries. In order to finance those “presents” some countries had to indebt themselves in excess. On the other side, the ECB, during a long period of time did not buy public debt. This is the reason why the Spanish premium rate is so high. If the ECB does not buy generously public debt, or the measures proposed by the author of this paper are not adopted, the Spanish public debt will be subject to the tireless speculation of the financial markets. Those measures could be confined to these two: a) “RULE OF 10”, that affect the debt interest rates, and b) the “RULE OF BALANCE” of debt flow, that affects the face value of the debt.
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risk premium, public debt, public deficit, financial markets, interest rates, debt auction, speculation, european community by-laws, prima de riesgo, deuda pública, déficit público, mercados financieros, tipos de interés, subasta de títulos, reglamento comunitario
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