Publicación: Estudio de la fiabilidad de los sistemas reparables y desarrollo de un procedimiento de análisis multivariante
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2017-06-23
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Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional
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Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (España). Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales. Departamento de Ingeniería Eléctrica, Electrónica y Control
Resumen
Para el análisis y modelado de la fiabilidad de sistemas reparables la comunidad científica dispone diversas metodologías estadísticas desarrolladas en las últimas décadas. Los métodos de mayor aceptación y empleo han sido recogidos por la Comisión Electrotécnica Internacional (IEC) en su Comité Técnico TC56 “Dependability” mediante la emisión de normas para el espacio europeo, teniendo en cuenta los manuales militares (MIL-HDBK) emitidos por el Departamento de Defensa de los Estados Unidos de América. La norma IEC 60300-3-5 recoge los métodos estadísticos y procedimientos de análisis aplicables. La intensidad de fallo de un elemento reparable se puede estimar empleando los sucesivos tiempos entre fallos, mediante un Proceso Puntual Estocástico. Si los tiempos entre fallos se distribuyen exponencialmente, entonces la intensidad de fallo es constante. En este caso se puede modelar por una Proceso de Poisson Homogéneo. En los casos en los que existe una tendencia en la intensidad de fallo, puede ser de aplicación el Proceso de Poisson No Homogéneo y se aplica la Ley de Potencia. La norma IEC 60605-6 desarrolla los contrastes para comprobar la existencia o no de tendencia en la intensidad de fallo mediante el Estadístico U, tanto para un sistema reparable, como para un conjunto idéntico de sistemas reparables. En el caso de no existir tendencia, se procede a la estimación puntual de parámetros e intervalos de confianza para la distribución exponencial con la norma IEC 60605-4. Si existe tendencia en la intensidad de fallo, se realiza la estimación de los parámetros del modelo de la Ley de Potencia con la norma IEC 61710. Se ha aplicado la metodología propuesta por IEC al sistema de tracción eléctrica ferroviario en 3 series de trenes de Metro de Madrid, de los que se dispone los datos de explotación para un periodo superior a 10 años, y al objeto de contrastar los resultados obtenidos, se ha efectuado el mismo estudio a un grupo de escaleras mecánicas de Metro de Madrid con 10 años de datos de explotación, proponiéndose a continuación un análisis complementario y multivariante para caracterizar las intensidades de fallo obtenidas y la influencia de los fallos repetitivos.
For the modeling and analysis of the reliability of repairable systems the scientific community provides various statistical methodologies developed in the last few decades. The methods of greater acceptance and employment have been collected by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) in its Technical Committee TC56 Dependability, through the issuance of standards for the European space, taking into account the military handbooks (MIL-HDBK) issued by the U.S. Department of Defense. IEC 60300-3-5 collects statistical methods and analysis procedures applicable. The failure intensity of a repairable system can be estimated using the successive times between failures, using a Stochastic Point Process. If there is no trend and the times between failures are distributed exponentially, then failure intensity is constant and in this case can be modeled by a Homogeneous Poisson Process. In cases where there is a tendency in the failure intensity, is modeled with a Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP) and the standard includes applying the Power Law Process. IEC 60605-6 develops the contrasts to verify the existence or not of trend in the failure intensity by means of the statistic U, both for a repairable system, such as for an identical set of repairable systems. In the event that there are no trend, is the point estimate of parameters and confidence intervals, alleged an exponential distribution with the standard IEC 60605-4. If there is a trend in the failure intensity the estimate is made of the model parameters of the Power Law Process with IEC 61710. It has been applied the methodology proposed by IEC to the electric traction system in 3 series of railway trains of Metro de Madrid, on the available data of operation for a period exceeding 10 years, and in order to compare the results obtained, has been made on the same study of a group of 40 escalators of Metro de Madrid with 10 years of operating data, propose below a complementary and multivariate analysis to characterize the failure intensity obtained and the influence of repetitive failures.
For the modeling and analysis of the reliability of repairable systems the scientific community provides various statistical methodologies developed in the last few decades. The methods of greater acceptance and employment have been collected by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) in its Technical Committee TC56 Dependability, through the issuance of standards for the European space, taking into account the military handbooks (MIL-HDBK) issued by the U.S. Department of Defense. IEC 60300-3-5 collects statistical methods and analysis procedures applicable. The failure intensity of a repairable system can be estimated using the successive times between failures, using a Stochastic Point Process. If there is no trend and the times between failures are distributed exponentially, then failure intensity is constant and in this case can be modeled by a Homogeneous Poisson Process. In cases where there is a tendency in the failure intensity, is modeled with a Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP) and the standard includes applying the Power Law Process. IEC 60605-6 develops the contrasts to verify the existence or not of trend in the failure intensity by means of the statistic U, both for a repairable system, such as for an identical set of repairable systems. In the event that there are no trend, is the point estimate of parameters and confidence intervals, alleged an exponential distribution with the standard IEC 60605-4. If there is a trend in the failure intensity the estimate is made of the model parameters of the Power Law Process with IEC 61710. It has been applied the methodology proposed by IEC to the electric traction system in 3 series of railway trains of Metro de Madrid, on the available data of operation for a period exceeding 10 years, and in order to compare the results obtained, has been made on the same study of a group of 40 escalators of Metro de Madrid with 10 years of operating data, propose below a complementary and multivariate analysis to characterize the failure intensity obtained and the influence of repetitive failures.
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Facultades y escuelas::E.T.S. de Ingenieros Industriales