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Cointegration between high base metals prices and backwardation: Getting ready for the metals super-cycle

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dc.contributor.authorGalán Gutiérrez, Juan Antonio
dc.contributor.authorLabeaga Azcona, José María
dc.contributor.authorMartín García, Rodrigo
dc.date.accessioned2024-06-11T15:15:10Z
dc.date.available2024-06-11T15:15:10Z
dc.date.issued2023-03
dc.description.abstractThis paper is devoted to test agents’ behavior in the markets of hard commodities by trying to distinguish between managing future price structures to hedge their positions and speculating in on prices. We do a triple analysis: cointegration on the time series, structural breaks over the full time series and panel data. The analysis of the full series and the identification of structural breaks allows us to discover the connection between high prices and the negative futures price structure (backwardation) in rising prices scenarios of tin, copper, aluminium, and zinc. Moreover, we obtain that the base metals full matrix (price and futures price structure) is cointegrated in our analysis that uses panel data methods. We believe that these results are important for agents in the markets, as commodity traders or brokers, to maximize profits in their hedging positions.en
dc.description.versionversión publicada
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103413
dc.identifier.issn0301-4207
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14468/22338
dc.journal.titleResources Policy
dc.journal.volume81
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.relation.centerFacultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales
dc.relation.departmentEconomía de la Empresa y Contabilidad
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
dc.subject.keywordsNormal backwardation
dc.subject.keywordsCointegration
dc.subject.keywordsBase metals
dc.subject.keywordsHard commodities
dc.subject.keywordsFutures price structure
dc.titleCointegration between high base metals prices and backwardation: Getting ready for the metals super-cyclees
dc.typejournal articleen
dc.typeartículoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
relation.isAuthorOfPublication6f5ba33d-cb8e-4e81-a634-25499d28afdb
relation.isAuthorOfPublication116c4b15-2369-4e5c-8c59-e0b7c5ac592f
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery6f5ba33d-cb8e-4e81-a634-25499d28afdb
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