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Impacts of future land use/land cover on wildfire occurrence in the Madrid region (Spain)

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dc.contributor.authorGallardo Beltrán, Marta
dc.contributor.authorGómez, Israel
dc.contributor.authorVilar, Lara
dc.contributor.authorMartínez Vega, Javier
dc.contributor.authorMartín, Maria Pilar
dc.contributor.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0872-1235
dc.contributor.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8519-120X
dc.date.accessioned2024-07-15T11:06:49Z
dc.date.available2024-07-15T11:06:49Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.descriptionThe registered version of this article, first published in “Reg Environ Change 16, 1047–1061 (2016)", is available online at the publisher's website: Springer, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0819-9 La versión registrada de este artículo, publicado por primera vez en “Reg Environ Change 16, 1047–1061 (2016)", está disponible en línea en el sitio web del editor: Springer, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0819-9
dc.description.abstractThis paper assesses the relative importance of socioeconomic factors linked to fire occurrence through the simulation of future land use/land cover (LULC) change scenarios in the Madrid region (Spain). This region is a clear example of the socioeconomic changes that have been occurring over recent decades in the European Mediterranean as well as their impact on LULC and fire occurrence. Using the LULC changes observed between 1990 and 2006 as a reference, future scenarios were run up to 2025 with the conversion of land use and its effects model. Simultaneously, the relationship between LULC arrangement (interfaces) and historical fire occurrence was calculated using logistic regression analysis and used to quantify changes in future fire occurrence due to projected changes in LULC interfaces. The results revealed that it is possible to explain the probability of fire occurrence using only variables obtained from LULC maps, although the explanatory power of the model is low. In this context, border areas between some LULC types are of particular interest (i.e., urban/forest, grassland/forest and agricultural/forest interfaces). Results indicated that expected LULC changes in Euro-Mediterranean regions, particularly given the foreseeable increase in the wildland¿urban interface, will substantially increase fire occurrence (up to 155 %). This underlines the importance of future LULC scenarios when planning fire prevention measures.en
dc.description.versionversión publicada
dc.identifier.citationGallardo, M., Gómez, I., Vilar, L. et al. Impacts of future land use/land cover on wildfire occurrence in the Madrid region (Spain). Reg Environ Change 16, 1047–1061 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0819-9
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0819-9
dc.identifier.issn1436-378X
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14468/22966
dc.journal.issue4
dc.journal.titleRegional Environmental Change
dc.journal.volume16
dc.language.isoen
dc.page.final1061
dc.page.initial1047
dc.publisherSpringer
dc.relation.centerFacultad de Geografía e Historia
dc.relation.departmentGeografía
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
dc.subject54 Geografía
dc.subject.keywordsLand use/land coveren
dc.subject.keywordsScenariosen
dc.subject.keywordsInterfacesen
dc.subject.keywordsWildfire occurrenceen
dc.subject.keywordsRegional scaleen
dc.titleImpacts of future land use/land cover on wildfire occurrence in the Madrid region (Spain)es
dc.typeartículoes
dc.typejournal articleen
dspace.entity.typePublication
relation.isAuthorOfPublication825b4b7b-503b-44d1-92cd-f23b0beeea2c
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery825b4b7b-503b-44d1-92cd-f23b0beeea2c
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