Publicación: Automated Support for Battle Operational-Strategic Decision-Making
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2021
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Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional
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Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (España). Escuela Internacional de Doctorado. Programa de Doctorado en Ingeniería de Sistemas y Control
Resumen
Los ejércitos siempre han sentido la necesidad de basar sus decisiones en métodos de investigación operativa de probada eficacia, con la que proporcionar al mando alternativas en el proceso de decisión, abarcando desde la optimización de las operaciones hasta la evaluación estratégica y el coste económico de las mismas. Las bajas de efectivos y material en la batalla son objeto de estudio en la investigación de operaciones militares, que aplica modelos matemáticos para cuantificar la probabilidad de victoria vs. las pérdidas. En particular, se han propuesto diferentes formas de modelar el curso de las batallas, pero ninguno de ellas ha proporcionado un soporte adecuado para la toma de decisiones de planas mayores. Para superar esta situación, esta tesis propone un nuevo enfoque que supera la mayoría de las limitaciones de los modelos tradicionales y apoya la toma de decisiones en los niveles más altos del mando: el estratégico y el operacional, recurriendo a la determinación de decaimiento de los niveles de las fuerzas de combate, comúnmente denominado desgaste (pérdidas), como mecanismo de evaluación de las decisiones. El enfoque aplica métodos de ingeniería de control adaptativo y predictivo que ajusta dinámicamente los cambios en la batalla, teniendo en cuenta las capacidades y maniobras del adversario y los efectos que producen. Además, incluye mecanismos de aprendizaje para mejorar las decisiones en condiciones de alta incertidumbre. En esta tesis se desarrolla la evaluación empírica del nuevo enfoque en las batallas de Creta, Iwo Jima y Kursk, tres influyentes batallas de la Segunda Guerra Mundial, en las que el tipo de combate era principalmente terrestre, modo de combate que no ha cambiado sustancialmente desde entonces. Por lo tanto, los resultados experimentales deberían extrapolarse adecuadamente al combate terrestre actual, esto, por sí mismo, constituye una contribución relevante, debido a que la mayoría de la literatura relacionada con los modelos de toma de decisiones militares carecen de las validaciones experimentales adecuadas. Por último, esta tesis pretende orientar a los profesionales e investigadores sobre la literatura disponible, identificando los puntos fuertes y débiles de los modelos de toma de decisiones existentes, muy útiles para proporcionar una base de referencia para la aplicación de los modelos de predicción de batalla.
Armies have always felt the need to base their decisions on proven operational research methods that seek to provide the command with alternatives in the decision-making process, from optimization of operations to strategic evaluation and cost economics. Battle casualties are a subject of study in military operations research, which applies mathematical models to quantify the probability of victory vs. loss. In particular, different approaches have been proposed to model the course of battles. However, none of them provide adequate decisionmaking support for high-level command. To overcome this situation, this thesis proposes an innovative framework that overcomes most limitations of traditional models and supports decision-making at the highest command levels: the strategic and the operational ones, resorting to the determination of the decay of combat force levels, commonly referred to as attrition (losses), as a mechanism for evaluating decisions. The framework applies adaptive and predictive control engineering methods to dynamically adjust to changes in the battle, taking into account the capabilities and maneuvers of the adversary and the effects produced. Also, it includes a learning mechanism to improve decisions under conditions with high uncertainty. The thesis reports the empirical evaluation of the framework on the Battle of Crete, Iwo Jima, and Kursk, three influentialWorldWar II battles, where the type of combat was mainly land-based. This mode of combat has not essentially changed since then. Therefore, the collected experimental results can be extrapolated to present-day land combat. This, by itself, constitutes a relevant contribution, as most literature on military decision-making lacks adequate experimental validations. Finally, this thesis provides practitioners and researchers with guidance on the available literature, identifying the strengths and weaknesses of existing decision-making models, and giving a reference background for applying battle prediction models in decision-making.
Armies have always felt the need to base their decisions on proven operational research methods that seek to provide the command with alternatives in the decision-making process, from optimization of operations to strategic evaluation and cost economics. Battle casualties are a subject of study in military operations research, which applies mathematical models to quantify the probability of victory vs. loss. In particular, different approaches have been proposed to model the course of battles. However, none of them provide adequate decisionmaking support for high-level command. To overcome this situation, this thesis proposes an innovative framework that overcomes most limitations of traditional models and supports decision-making at the highest command levels: the strategic and the operational ones, resorting to the determination of the decay of combat force levels, commonly referred to as attrition (losses), as a mechanism for evaluating decisions. The framework applies adaptive and predictive control engineering methods to dynamically adjust to changes in the battle, taking into account the capabilities and maneuvers of the adversary and the effects produced. Also, it includes a learning mechanism to improve decisions under conditions with high uncertainty. The thesis reports the empirical evaluation of the framework on the Battle of Crete, Iwo Jima, and Kursk, three influentialWorldWar II battles, where the type of combat was mainly land-based. This mode of combat has not essentially changed since then. Therefore, the collected experimental results can be extrapolated to present-day land combat. This, by itself, constitutes a relevant contribution, as most literature on military decision-making lacks adequate experimental validations. Finally, this thesis provides practitioners and researchers with guidance on the available literature, identifying the strengths and weaknesses of existing decision-making models, and giving a reference background for applying battle prediction models in decision-making.
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Categorías UNESCO
Palabras clave
sistemas de apoyo a la decisión, modelos de combate, dinámica de sistemas, situación de batalla, sistemas de mando y control, modelos de Lanchester, juegos de guerra, decision support systems, combat models, system dynamics, battle situation, warfare information system, Lanchester models, war games
Citación
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Facultades y escuelas::E.T.S. de Ingeniería Informática
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Grupo de innovación
Programa de doctorado
Programa de doctorado en ingeniería de sistemas y control