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A semi-mechanistic model for predicting daily variations in species-level live fuel moisture content

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dc.contributor.authorBalaguer Romano, Rodrigo
dc.date.accessioned2024-05-20T11:28:51Z
dc.date.available2024-05-20T11:28:51Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.abstractLive Fuel Moisture Content (LFMC) is one of the main factors affecting forest ignitability as it determines the availability of existing live fuel to burn. Currently, LFMC is monitored through spectral vegetation indices or inferred from meteorological drought indices. While useful, neither approach provides mechanistic insights into species-specific LFMC variation and they are limited in the ability to forecast LFMC under altered future climates. Here, we developed a semi-mechanistic model to predict daily variation in LFMC across woody species from different functional types by adjusting a soil water balance model which estimates predawn leaf water potential (Ψpd). Our overarching goal was to balance the trade-off between biological realism, which enhances model applicability, and parameterization complexity, which may limit its value within operational settings. After calibration, model predictions were validated against a dataset comprising 1659 LFMC observations across peninsular Spain, belonging to different functional types and from contrasting climates. The overall goodness of fit for our model (R2 = 0.5) was better than that obtained by an existing models based on drought indices (R2 = 0.3) or spectral vegetation indices (R2 = 0.1). We observed the best predictive performance for seeding shrubs (R2 = 0.6) followed by trees (R2 = 0.5) and resprouting shrubs (R2 = 0.4). Through its relatively simple parameterization, the approach developed here may pave the way for a new generation of process-based models that can be used for operational purposes within fire risk mitigation scenarios.en
dc.description.versionversión final
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109022
dc.identifier.issn0168-1923
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14468/12076
dc.journal.titleAgricultural and Forest Meteorology
dc.journal.volume323
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.relation.centerFacultad de Ciencias
dc.relation.departmentFísica Matemática y de Fluídos
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
dc.subject.keywordswildfire
dc.subject.keywordsfire behaviour
dc.subject.keywordsdrought stress
dc.subject.keywordsdrought Code
dc.subject.keywordsremote sensing
dc.subject.keywordsphyrophysiology
dc.titleA semi-mechanistic model for predicting daily variations in species-level live fuel moisture contentes
dc.typejournal articleen
dc.typeartículoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
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