Persona: Dormido Canto, Sebastián
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Dormido Canto
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Publicación Disruption prediction with artificial intelligence techniques in tokamak plasmas(Springer Nature, 2022-06-06) Vega, J.; Murari, A.; Rattá, Giuseppe A.; Gelfusa, Michela; Contributors, JET.; Dormido Canto, SebastiánIn nuclear fusion reactors, plasmas are heated to very high temperatures of more than 100 million kelvin and, in so-called tokamaks, they are confined by magnetic fields in the shape of a torus. Light nuclei, such as deuterium and tritium, undergo a fusion reaction that releases energy, making fusion a promising option for a sustainable and clean energy source. Tokamak plasmas, however, are prone to disruptions as a result of a sudden collapse of the system terminating the fusion reactions. As disruptions lead to an abrupt loss of confinement, they can cause irreversible damage to present-day fusion devices and are expected to have a more devastating effect in future devices. Disruptions expected in the next-generation tokamak, ITER, for example, could cause electromagnetic forces larger than the weight of an Airbus A380. Furthermore, the thermal loads in such an event could exceed the melting threshold of the most resistant state-of-the-art materials by more than an order of magnitude. To prevent disruptions or at least mitigate their detrimental effects, empirical models obtained with artificial intelligence methods, of which an overview is given here, are commonly employed to predict their occurrence—and ideally give enough time to introduce counteracting measures.Publicación A linear equation based on signal increments to predict disruptive behaviours and the time to disruption on JET(IOP Publishing, 2019-12-13) Vega, J.; Murari, A.; Hernández, F.; Cruz, T.; Gadariya, Dhaval; Rattá, Giuseppe A.; Contributors, JET.; Dormido Canto, SebastiánThis article describes the development of a generic disruption predictor that is also used as basic system to provide an estimation of the time to disruption at the alarm times. The mode lock signal normalised to the plasma current is used as input feature. The recognition of disruptive/non-disruptive behaviours is not based on a simple threshold of this quantity but on the evolution of the amplitudes between consecutive samples taken periodically. The separation frontier between plasma behaviours (disruptive/non-disruptive) is linear in such parameter space. The percentages of recognised and false alarms are 98% and 4%, respectively. The recognised alarms can be split into valid alarms (90%) and late detections (8%). The experimental distribution of warning times follows an exponential model with average warning time of 443 ms. On the other hand, the prediction of the time to the disruption has been fitted to a Weibull model that relates this predicted time to the distance of the points to the diagonal in the parameter space of consecutive samples. The model shows a very good agreement between predicted times and warning times in narrow time intervals (between 0.01 s and 0.06 s) before the disruption.Publicación Adaptive predictors based on probabilistic SVM for real time disruption mitigation on JET(IOP Publishing, 2018-03-02) Murari, A.; Lungaroni, M.; Peluso, E.; Gaudio, P.; Vega, J.; Baruzzo, M.; Gelfusa, Michela; Contributors, JET.; Dormido Canto, Sebastián::virtual::4131::600; Dormido Canto, Sebastián; Dormido Canto, Sebastián; Dormido Canto, SebastiánDetecting disruptions with sufficient anticipation time is essential to undertake any form of remedial strategy, mitigation or avoidance. Traditional predictors based on machine learning techniques can be very performing, if properly optimised, but do not provide a natural estimate of the quality of their outputs and they typically age very quickly. In this paper a new set of tools, based on probabilistic extensions of support vector machines (SVM), are introduced and applied for the first time to JET data. The probabilistic output constitutes a natural qualification of the prediction quality and provides additional flexibility. An adaptive training strategy 'from scratch' has also been devised, which allows preserving the performance even when the experimental conditions change significantly. Large JET databases of disruptions, covering entire campaigns and thousands of discharges, have been analysed, both for the case of the graphite and the ITER Like Wall. Performance significantly better than any previous predictor using adaptive training has been achieved, satisfying even the requirements of the next generation of devices. The adaptive approach to the training has also provided unique information about the evolution of the operational space. The fact that the developed tools give the probability of disruption improves the interpretability of the results, provides an estimate of the predictor quality and gives new insights into the physics. Moreover, the probabilistic treatment permits to insert more easily these classifiers into general decision support and control systems.Publicación Assessment of linear disruption predictors using JT-60U data(Elsevier, 2019-09) Vega, J.; Hernández, F.; Isayama, A.; Joffrin, E.; Matsunaga, G.; Suzuki, T.; Dormido Canto, SebastiánDisruptions are dangerous events in tokamaks that require mitigation methods to alleviate its detrimental effects. A prerequisite to trigger any mitigation action is the existence of a reliable disruption predictor. This article assesses a predictor that relates in a linear way consecutive samples of a single quantity (in particular, the magnetic perturbation time derivative signal has been used). With this kind of predictor, the recognition of disruptions does not depend on how large the signal amplitude is but on how large the signal increments are: small increments mean smooth plasma evolution whereas abrupt increments reflect a non-smooth evolution and potential risk of disruption. Results are presented with data from the JT-60U tokamak and high-beta discharges. Two training methods have been tested: a classical approach in which the more data for training the better and an adaptive method that starts from scratch. In both cases the success rate is about 95%. It should be noted that predictors based on signal increments and their adaptive versions can be of big interest for next devices such as JT-60SA or ITER.