Persona: Teira Serrano, David
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Teira Serrano
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David
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Publicación Statistical evidence and the reliability of medical research(['M. Solomon', 'H. Kincaid', 'J. Simon'], 2016-01-01) Andreoletti, Mattia; Teira Serrano, DavidStatistical evidence is pervasive in medicine. In this chapter we will focus on the reliability of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) conducted to test the safety and efficacy of medical treatments. RCTs are scientific experiments and, as such, we expect them to be replicable: if we repeat the same experiment time and again, we should obtain the same outcome (Norton 2015). The statistical design of the test should guarantee that the observed outcome is not a random event, but rather a real effect of the treatments administered. However, for more than a decade now we have been discussing a replicability crisis across different experimental disciplines including medicine: the outcomes of trials published in very prestigious journals often disappear when the experiment is repeated –see for instance Lehrer 2010, Begley and Ellis 2012, Horton 2015).Publicación The ethics of statistical testing(2012-04-11) Sprenger, Jan; Teira Serrano, DavidSignicance testing is the most widely used statistical tool for quantitative analysis in science and business. We want to explore in what sense signicance testing can help in making ethical decisions, and in what sense it may obstruct them. In the rst section of this paper, we analyze a simplied model of ethical decision-making, showing how consistency in the assignment of probabilities is a prerequisite for any consequentialist justication of our choices. In the second section we provide a short introduction to signicance testing and its two main interpretations. In the third section we point to inconsistencies in the actual practice of signicance testing. Finally, we discuss several proposals for a consistent use of statistical tests in practical decision-making.Publicación Frank Knight y los positivistas(Fondo de Cultura Económica, 2002-03-17) Pradier, Pierre Charles; González Fernández, Wenceslao J.; Teira Serrano, DavidEn este artículo intentaremos precisar en qué sentido fue el primer Knight un antipositivista -veinte años antes de la aparición de la obra de Hutchinson- a partir de un análisis contextualizado de sus argumentos filosóficos y económicos. En primer lugar, intentamos restituir su contexto polémico original a los argumentos de Knight, interpretándolos como parte de controversias que hoy son ya historia. En segundo lugar, tratamos de seguir el curso de estos argumentos desde la economía a la filosofía -y a la inversa, cuando es el caso-, sin incurrir en el anacronismo de considerar al positivismo lógico el único de los positivismos que Knight pudo tener a la vista. En este sentido, nuestro análisis pretende contribuir a una mejor comprensión de lo que significó el positivismo en economía antes de que se asociase en los años 1950 a las tesis de FriedmanPublicación Model-Based Knowledge and Credible Policy Analysis(['Hsiang-Ke Chao', 'Julian Reiss'], 2017-01-01) Chao, Hsiang Ke; Teira Serrano, DavidPublicación Popper, Friedman y la ingeniería social, cincuenta años después(2009-08-06) Teira Serrano, DavidPublicación Frequentist versus Bayesian Clinical Trials(2009-10-28) Teira Serrano, DavidI will open the first part of this paper by trying to elucidate the frequentist foundations of RCTs. I will then present a number of methodological objections against the viability of these inferential principles in the conduct of actual clinical trials. In the following section, I will explore the main ethical issues in frequentist trials, namely those related to randomisation and the use of stopping rules. In the final section of the first part, I will analyse why RCTs were accepted for regulatory purposes. I contend that their main virtue, from a regulatory viewpoint, is their impartiality, which is grounded in randomisation and fixed rules for the interpretation of the experiment. Thus the question will be whether Bayesian trials can match or exceed the achievements of frequentist RCTs in all these respects. In the second part of the paper, I will first present a quick glimpse of the introduction of Bayesianism in the field of medical experiments, followed by a summary presentation of the basic tenets of a Bayesian trial. The point here is to show that there is no such thing as “a” Bayesian trial. Bayesianism can ground many different approaches to medical experiments and we should assess their respective virtues separately. Thus I present two actual trials, planned with different goals in mind, and assess their respective epistemic, ethical and regulatory merits. In a tentative conclusion, I contend that, given the constraints imposed by our current regulatory framework, impartiality should preside over the design of clinical trials, even at the expense of many of their inferential and ethical virtues.Publicación Los economistas como metodólogos: Friedman y Samuelson(2008-05-15) Teira Serrano, DavidBreve presentación de las posiciones metodológicas de Milton Friedman y Paul Samuelson. De próxima publicación en el volumen de Filosofía de la economía, editado por J. C. García-Bermejo para la Enciclopedia Iberoamericana de FilosofíaPublicación The Politics of Positivism: Disinterested Predictions from interested agents(Uskali Maki, 2009-08-06) Teira Serrano, David; Zamora Bonilla, Jesús PedroPublicación Continental Philosophies of the Social Sciences(2013-03-23) Teira Serrano, DavidI will focus on a few paradigmatic instances of continental philosophies of the social sciences, discussing each one separately without any attempt to find a common thread. The following three sections will deal, in this order, with Marxism, phenomenology and, more briefly, Foucault. I have chosen these three approaches for just one reason: they have had a real influence on how social research has been conducted throughout the 20th century. There have been Marxist, phenomenological and Foucauldian social scientists and they can claim that their research methods are effectively grounded in philosophical principles that analytically-oriented social scientists do not share. Next, I will focus on positive guidelines implemented in current social sciences rather than on principled philosophical discussions about how they should be cultivated. In the case of Marxism, this implies an assessment of major contributions in several fields, whereas phenomenologists or Foucauldians have so far been a dissenting minority with minor professional impact. I follow the (mostly) analytically-minded habit of working with case studies where methodologies are actually implemented. The aim of this chapter is just to show the relevance of continental ideas for certain research agendas, focusing more on their efficacy in actual scientific practices than on their internal philosophical merits. This judgment is admittedly analytically inspired, but I hope not entirely unfair to the continental accomplishments.Publicación Lo uno y lo múltiple : la estructura de la explicación económica en Walras y Marshall(2001-02-22) Teira Serrano, DavidEn este trabajo se explora la oposición entre los enfoques metodológicos de Walras y Marshall. Se estudian, por una parte, sus explicaciones del equilibrio económico, atendiendo a su estructura y mecanismos (según la tipología establecida por Jon Elster), y la perspectiva epistemológica general de la que ambos parten (siguiendo la distinción de Hollis entre racionalismo y empirismo), por otra. Desde este punto de vista, se advierten algunas de las principales dificultades metodológicas que tendría que enfrentar la ciencia económica en el siglo XX.