Persona: Teira Serrano, David
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Teira Serrano
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Publicación Frequentist versus Bayesian Clinical Trials(2009-10-28) Teira Serrano, DavidI will open the first part of this paper by trying to elucidate the frequentist foundations of RCTs. I will then present a number of methodological objections against the viability of these inferential principles in the conduct of actual clinical trials. In the following section, I will explore the main ethical issues in frequentist trials, namely those related to randomisation and the use of stopping rules. In the final section of the first part, I will analyse why RCTs were accepted for regulatory purposes. I contend that their main virtue, from a regulatory viewpoint, is their impartiality, which is grounded in randomisation and fixed rules for the interpretation of the experiment. Thus the question will be whether Bayesian trials can match or exceed the achievements of frequentist RCTs in all these respects. In the second part of the paper, I will first present a quick glimpse of the introduction of Bayesianism in the field of medical experiments, followed by a summary presentation of the basic tenets of a Bayesian trial. The point here is to show that there is no such thing as “a” Bayesian trial. Bayesianism can ground many different approaches to medical experiments and we should assess their respective virtues separately. Thus I present two actual trials, planned with different goals in mind, and assess their respective epistemic, ethical and regulatory merits. In a tentative conclusion, I contend that, given the constraints imposed by our current regulatory framework, impartiality should preside over the design of clinical trials, even at the expense of many of their inferential and ethical virtues.Publicación Causality, Impartiality and Evidence-Based Policy(2012-04-11) Reiss, Julian; Teira Serrano, DavidRandomisation, the assignment of experimental subjects to treatment groups by means of a random number generator, was first systematically applied in psychic research in the late nineteenth century and became popular in statistics after Ronald Fisher advocated its use in 1926 (Hacking 1988). In medicine and development economics, the two sciences we will focus on in this chapter, randomised trials are now widely regarded as the ‘gold standard’ of evidence. The overall aims of this chapter are to compare the use of randomised evaluations in these two sciences and to assess their ability to provide impartial evidence about causal claims. In short, we will argue that there are no good reasons to regard randomisation as a sine qua non for good evidential practice in either science. However, in medicine, but not in development economics, randomisation can provide impartiality from the point of view of regulatory agencies. The intuition is that if the available evidence leaves room for uncertainty about the effects of an intervention (such as a new drug), a regulator should make sure that such uncertainty cannot be exploited by some party’s private interest. We will argue that randomisation plays an important role in this context. By contrast, in the field evaluations that have recently become popular in development economics subjects have incentives to act strategically against the research protocol which undermines their use as neutral arbiter between conflicting parties.Publicación Frank Knight y los positivistas(Fondo de Cultura Económica, 2002-03-17) Pradier, Pierre Charles; González Fernández, Wenceslao J.; Teira Serrano, DavidEn este artículo intentaremos precisar en qué sentido fue el primer Knight un antipositivista -veinte años antes de la aparición de la obra de Hutchinson- a partir de un análisis contextualizado de sus argumentos filosóficos y económicos. En primer lugar, intentamos restituir su contexto polémico original a los argumentos de Knight, interpretándolos como parte de controversias que hoy son ya historia. En segundo lugar, tratamos de seguir el curso de estos argumentos desde la economía a la filosofía -y a la inversa, cuando es el caso-, sin incurrir en el anacronismo de considerar al positivismo lógico el único de los positivismos que Knight pudo tener a la vista. En este sentido, nuestro análisis pretende contribuir a una mejor comprensión de lo que significó el positivismo en economía antes de que se asociase en los años 1950 a las tesis de FriedmanPublicación The ethics of statistical testing(2012-04-11) Sprenger, Jan; Teira Serrano, DavidSignicance testing is the most widely used statistical tool for quantitative analysis in science and business. We want to explore in what sense signicance testing can help in making ethical decisions, and in what sense it may obstruct them. In the rst section of this paper, we analyze a simplied model of ethical decision-making, showing how consistency in the assignment of probabilities is a prerequisite for any consequentialist justication of our choices. In the second section we provide a short introduction to signicance testing and its two main interpretations. In the third section we point to inconsistencies in the actual practice of signicance testing. Finally, we discuss several proposals for a consistent use of statistical tests in practical decision-making.Publicación Model-Based Knowledge and Credible Policy Analysis(['Hsiang-Ke Chao', 'Julian Reiss'], 2017-01-01) Chao, Hsiang Ke; Teira Serrano, DavidPublicación Quasi- and Field Experiments(2015) Díaz García, Alejandro; Jiménez Buedo, María; Teira Serrano, DavidField trials and quasi-experiments are comparative tests in which we assess the effects of one intervention (or a set thereof) on a group of subjects as compared to another intervention on another group of similar characteristics. The main difference between field trials and quasi-experiments is in the way the interventions are assigned to the groups: in the former the allocation is randomized whereas in the latter is not. We are going to see first the different roles played by randomization in medical experiments. Then we discuss how controlled field trials, originating in psychology, spread to the social sciences throughout the 20th century. Finally, we will show how the idea of a quasi-experiment appeared around a debate on what constitutes a valid test and what sort of controls guarantee it.Publicación Lo uno y lo múltiple : la estructura de la explicación económica en Walras y Marshall(2001-02-22) Teira Serrano, DavidEn este trabajo se explora la oposición entre los enfoques metodológicos de Walras y Marshall. Se estudian, por una parte, sus explicaciones del equilibrio económico, atendiendo a su estructura y mecanismos (según la tipología establecida por Jon Elster), y la perspectiva epistemológica general de la que ambos parten (siguiendo la distinción de Hollis entre racionalismo y empirismo), por otra. Desde este punto de vista, se advierten algunas de las principales dificultades metodológicas que tendría que enfrentar la ciencia económica en el siglo XX.Publicación Testing oncological treatments in the era of personalized medicine(['G. Boniolo', 'M. Nathan'], 2016-01-01) Teira Serrano, DavidShould conventional randomized clinical trials provide the standard of safety and efficacy when testing targeted treatments for cancer? Should we make amendments to our current regulatory standard, stick to it, or dispense with it? I am going to maintain that, under certain circumstances, smaller phase II trials provide good enough grounds to grant regulatory approval for targeted therapies. My argument will hinge on the size of trial population, showing how this size is important not only for scientific considerations, but also for ethical and political reasons. The current system was designed to provide massive consumer protection at a point when our understanding of the biology of cancer was still relatively poor and statistical tests gave the only solid evidence about treatment effects. With targeted therapies, risks are hedged in a way that allows patients (if well informed) to make decisions for themselves, instead of deferring on pharmaceutical regulators.Publicación On the normative foundations of pharmaceutical regulation(['Barbara Osimani', 'Adam LaCaze'], 2017-06-08) Teira Serrano, DavidI argue that behind the 1962 Food and Drug Administration Act we find a combination of two normative principles: a liberal argument for the protection of pharmaceutical markets (in terms of quality control) and a paternalist argument for the protection of pharmaceutical consumers (in terms of drug safety and efficacy). These normative intuitions go hand in hand with the choice of regulatory testing standards: depending on the values the regulator wants to protect, she will avail herself of different testing methods. I explore two potential justifications for regulatory paternalism, in terms of risk aversion and impartiality. I defend our current regulatory arrangement against socialist and libertarian critiques.Publicación Los economistas como metodólogos: Friedman y Samuelson(2008-05-15) Teira Serrano, DavidBreve presentación de las posiciones metodológicas de Milton Friedman y Paul Samuelson. De próxima publicación en el volumen de Filosofía de la economía, editado por J. C. García-Bermejo para la Enciclopedia Iberoamericana de Filosofía