Persona: Teira Serrano, David
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Teira Serrano
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Publicación Frank Knight : le risque comme critique de l ' économie politique(2000-03-17) Pradier, Pierre Charles; Teira Serrano, DavidIn this paper we try to throw some light on the Knightian distinction between risk and uncertainty attending to a number of previous contributions to philosophy and economics. On the economists' side, we propose to read Knight's distinction on the light of the distribution controversy that took place at the Quarterly Journal of Economics at the end of the XIX century. On the philosophers' side, the pair risk/uncertainty can be analysed in view of Knight's epistemological sources, as opposing a sort of probabilistic positivism to an agnostic variety of positivism. His philosophical commitments can be of use in explaining why Knight closes down the distribution controversy, proposing instead a reconstruction of economics as a rational choice science. En el presente artículo intentamos obtener algunas claves para iluminar la distinción knightiana entre riesgo e incertidumbre a partir de la obra de sus predecesores. Por parte de los economistas, podemos interpretar la distinción a la luz del debate sobre la distribución que tuvo lugar en el Quarterly Journal of Economics a finales del XIX. Por otra parte, atendiendo a sus fuentes filosóficas podemos analizar la distinción entre riesgo e incertidumbre en términos de teoría del conocimiento oponiendo positivismo probabilístico a positivismo agnóstico. El análisis de la epistemología de Knight nos permite explicar por qué cierra por absurdo el debate sobre la distribución, proponiendo a cambio una reconstrucción de la teoría económica como ciencia de la elección racional.Publicación What was fair in actuarial fairness?(2019-06-06) Heras Martínez, Antonio José; Pradier, Pierre Charles; Teira Serrano, DavidIn actuarial parlance, the price of an insurance policy is considered fair if customers bearing the same risks are charged the same price. The estimate of this fair amount hinges on the expected value obtained weighting the different claims by their probability. We claim that, historically, this concept of actuarial fairness originates in an Aristotelian principle of justice in exchange (equality in risk). We will examine how this principle was formalized in the 16th century and shaped in life insurance during the next two hundred years, in two different interpretations. The Domatian account of actuarial fairness relies on subjective uncertainty: an agreement on risk is fair if both parties are equally ignorant about the chances of an uncertain event. The objectivist version grounds any agreement on an objective risk estimate drawn from a mortality table. We will show how the objectivist approach collapsed in the market for life annuities during the 18th century, leaving open the question of why we still speak of actuarial fairness as if it were an objective expected value.Publicación Frank Knight y los positivistas(Fondo de Cultura Económica, 2002-03-17) Pradier, Pierre Charles; González Fernández, Wenceslao J.; Teira Serrano, DavidEn este artículo intentaremos precisar en qué sentido fue el primer Knight un antipositivista -veinte años antes de la aparición de la obra de Hutchinson- a partir de un análisis contextualizado de sus argumentos filosóficos y económicos. En primer lugar, intentamos restituir su contexto polémico original a los argumentos de Knight, interpretándolos como parte de controversias que hoy son ya historia. En segundo lugar, tratamos de seguir el curso de estos argumentos desde la economía a la filosofía -y a la inversa, cuando es el caso-, sin incurrir en el anacronismo de considerar al positivismo lógico el único de los positivismos que Knight pudo tener a la vista. En este sentido, nuestro análisis pretende contribuir a una mejor comprensión de lo que significó el positivismo en economía antes de que se asociase en los años 1950 a las tesis de FriedmanPublicación Facts, Norms and Expected Utility Functions(2008-05-15) Jallais, Sophie; Pradier, Pierre Charles; Teira Serrano, DavidIn this paper we want to explore an argumentative pattern that provides a normative justification for expected utility functions grounded on empirical evidence, showing how it worked in three different episodes of their development. The argument claims that we should prudentially maximize our expected utility since this is the criterion effectively applied by those who are considered wisest in making risky choices (be it gamblers or businessmen). Yet, to justify the adoption of this rule, it should be proven that this is empirically true: i.e., that a given function allows us to predict the choices of that particular class of agents. We show how expected utility functions were introduced and contested in accordance with this pattern in the 18th century and how it recurred in the 1950s when M. Allais made his case against the neobernoulliansPublicación A contractarian approach to actuarial fairness(2024-01-21) Heras Martínez, Antonio José; Pradier, Pierre Charles; Teira Serrano, DavidWe defend, from a contractarian perspective, that the fair price of an insurance policy is the amount that the contracting parties agree when they are both equally uncertain about the insured event. Drawing on the approach developed by R. Sugden in The Community of Advantage, we answer two standard objections raised against contractarianism in the actuarial sciences: 1) people are not wise enough to assess their actuarial risks; 2) they are not rational enough to decide which insurance policy suits them better. We show under which circumstances people can make fair actuarial agreements, without presupposing any objective risk or rationality benchmarks.