Persona: Teira Serrano, David
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0000-0002-4551-2371
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Teira Serrano
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David
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Publicación What was fair in actuarial fairness?(2019-06-06) Heras Martínez, Antonio José; Pradier, Pierre Charles; Teira Serrano, DavidIn actuarial parlance, the price of an insurance policy is considered fair if customers bearing the same risks are charged the same price. The estimate of this fair amount hinges on the expected value obtained weighting the different claims by their probability. We claim that, historically, this concept of actuarial fairness originates in an Aristotelian principle of justice in exchange (equality in risk). We will examine how this principle was formalized in the 16th century and shaped in life insurance during the next two hundred years, in two different interpretations. The Domatian account of actuarial fairness relies on subjective uncertainty: an agreement on risk is fair if both parties are equally ignorant about the chances of an uncertain event. The objectivist version grounds any agreement on an objective risk estimate drawn from a mortality table. We will show how the objectivist approach collapsed in the market for life annuities during the 18th century, leaving open the question of why we still speak of actuarial fairness as if it were an objective expected value.Publicación Cómo mide el riesgo el observador imparcial(2015) Heras Martínez, Antonio José; Teira Serrano, DavidExploramos aquí la conexión entre los conceptos de riesgo e igualdad en el argumento del observador imparcial. La concepción de la justicia que elegiría un observador imparcial se justifica por la pureza del procedimiento de elección. Sin embargo, si modelizamos esta decisión utilizando medidas del riesgo habituales en matemática financiera, veremos cómo el criterio de elección del observador bajo el velo de la ignorancia contiene una preferencia implícita por el grado de desigualdad resultante. Esto nos obliga a reconsiderar la pureza procedimental de la elección.Publicación A contractarian approach to actuarial fairness(2024-01-21) Heras Martínez, Antonio José; Pradier, Pierre Charles; Teira Serrano, DavidWe defend, from a contractarian perspective, that the fair price of an insurance policy is the amount that the contracting parties agree when they are both equally uncertain about the insured event. Drawing on the approach developed by R. Sugden in The Community of Advantage, we answer two standard objections raised against contractarianism in the actuarial sciences: 1) people are not wise enough to assess their actuarial risks; 2) they are not rational enough to decide which insurance policy suits them better. We show under which circumstances people can make fair actuarial agreements, without presupposing any objective risk or rationality benchmarks.