Persona: Gallardo Beltrán, Marta
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0000-0003-4804-710X
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Gallardo Beltrán
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Marta
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Publicación Modelling Land Use and Land Cover Changes in the Mediterranean Agricultural Ecosystems(Taylor & Francis, 2021) Martínez Vega, Javier; Mili, Samir; Gallardo Beltrán, Marta; Vlontzos, George; Ampatzidis, Yiannis; Manos, Basil; Pardalos, Panos; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8519-120X; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3835-9310Land use and land cover (LULC) is a powerful driver of sustainable landscape development, conservation and management. This is especially true for Mediterranean agricultural landscapes, which are increasingly sensitive to human activities, water scarcity and climate change. Therefore, this study investigates the patterns, dynamics and driving forces of LULC changes affecting Mediterranean agricultural ecosystems, taking southern Spain (regions of Andalusia and Murcia) as a representative case study. Analysis of LULC change facilitates the design of policies to balance competing uses, development pressures and conservation imperatives. Cartographic modelling of LULC changes was applied using the level-3 44 classes of CORINE Land Cover (CLC) maps for 2006 and 2018. Cross-tabulation techniques and descriptive statistics of land uses (persistence, gains, losses, total change, net change and annual change) have been used. LULC change processes have been geographically localized and correlated with their driving factors using logistic regression modelling. Part of these factors are environmental and biophysical (topography, climate, soils, aquifers, protected areas) whereas others are socioeconomic (accessibility, agricultural and environmental policies, natural resource management plans, urban planning, among others). GUIDOS software has been used to compute a fragmentation index of agricultural landscape that contributes to understanding ecological implications of the LULC changes within agricultural semi-natural ecosystems in the study area. Results indicate inter alia that in both regions over 81,000 hectares of agricultural land have changed their use status toward other non-agricultural uses during 2006-2018 due to diverse processes of LULC change, generating significant socioeconomic and environmental implications. Agricultural lands have experienced inverse processes such as crop intensification and extension of irrigated crops, as well as reduction in rainfed arable land and agroforestry areas. It is expected that the results obtained can help policymakers and managers responsible for agricultural and environmental policies in their decision-making processes, including decisions related to agricultural land management, crop diversification, and allocation of the CAP and the agri-environmental payments. Results also could be useful for other countries holding similar agricultural ecosystemsPublicación Modeling Land-Use Scenarios in Protected Areas of an Urban Region in Spain(Springer, 2018) Gallardo Beltrán, Marta; Martínez Vega, Javier; Camacho Olmedo, MT; Paegelow, M; Mas, JF; Escobar, F; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8519-120XPublicación Assessing Land Use-Cover Changes and Modelling Change Scenarios in Two Mountain Spanish National Parks(MDPI, 2017-11-07) Martínez Vega, Javier; Díaz Martín, Andrés; Nava Rodriguez, José Miguel; Echavarría Daspet, Pilar; Gallardo Beltrán, Marta; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8519-120X; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4804-710XLand Use-Cover Changes (LUCCs) are one of the main problems for the preservation of biodiversity. Protected Areas (PAs) do not escape this threat. Some processes, such as intensive recreational use, forest fires or the expansion of artificial areas taking place inside and around them in response to their appeal, question their environmental sustainability and their efficiency. In this paper, we analyze the LUCCs that took place between 1990 and 2006 in two National Parks (NPs) belonging to the Spanish network and in their surroundings: Ordesa and Monte Perdido (Ordesa NP) and Sierra de Guadarrama (Guadarrama NP). We also simulate land use changes between 2006 and 2030 by means of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), taking into account two scenarios: trend and green. Finally, we perform a multi-temporal analysis of natural habitat fragmentation in each NP. The results show that the NPs analyzed are well-preserved and have seen hardly any significant LUCCs inside them. However, Socioeconomic Influence Zones (SIZs) and buffers are subject to different dynamics. In the SIZ and buffer of the Ordesa NP, there has been an expansion of built-up areas (annual rate of change = +1.19) around small urban hubs and ski resorts. There has also been a gradual recovery of natural areas, which had been interrupted by forest fires. The invasion of sub-alpine grasslands by shrubs is clear (+2735 ha). The SIZ and buffer of the Guadarrama NP are subject to urban sprawl in forest areas and to the construction of road infrastructures (+5549 ha and an annual rate of change = +1.20). Industrial area has multiplied by 3.3 in 20 years. The consequences are an increase in the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI), greater risk of forest fires and greater fragmentation of natural habitats (+0.04 in SIZ). In the change scenarios, if conditions change as expected, the specific threats facing each NP can be expected to increase. There are substantial differences between the scenarios depending on whether or not incentives are accepted and legal restrictions are respected.Publicación Impacts of future land use/land cover on wildfire occurrence in the Madrid region (Spain)(Springer, 2016) Gallardo Beltrán, Marta; Gómez, Israel; Vilar, Lara; Martínez Vega, Javier; Martín, Maria Pilar; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0872-1235; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8519-120XThis paper assesses the relative importance of socioeconomic factors linked to fire occurrence through the simulation of future land use/land cover (LULC) change scenarios in the Madrid region (Spain). This region is a clear example of the socioeconomic changes that have been occurring over recent decades in the European Mediterranean as well as their impact on LULC and fire occurrence. Using the LULC changes observed between 1990 and 2006 as a reference, future scenarios were run up to 2025 with the conversion of land use and its effects model. Simultaneously, the relationship between LULC arrangement (interfaces) and historical fire occurrence was calculated using logistic regression analysis and used to quantify changes in future fire occurrence due to projected changes in LULC interfaces. The results revealed that it is possible to explain the probability of fire occurrence using only variables obtained from LULC maps, although the explanatory power of the model is low. In this context, border areas between some LULC types are of particular interest (i.e., urban/forest, grassland/forest and agricultural/forest interfaces). Results indicated that expected LULC changes in Euro-Mediterranean regions, particularly given the foreseeable increase in the wildland¿urban interface, will substantially increase fire occurrence (up to 155 %). This underlines the importance of future LULC scenarios when planning fire prevention measures.