Persona:
Gallardo Beltrán, Marta

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ORCID
0000-0003-4804-710X
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Gallardo Beltrán
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Marta
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2016 - 20183
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Nivel de acceso: info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess × Autor: Martínez Vega, Javier ×

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Mostrando 1 - 3 de 3
  • Miniatura
    Publicación
    Impacts of future land use/land cover on wildfire occurrence in the Madrid region (Spain)
    (Springer, 2016) Gallardo Beltrán, Marta; Gómez, Israel; Vilar, Lara; Martínez Vega, Javier; Martín, Maria Pilar; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0872-1235; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8519-120X
    This paper assesses the relative importance of socioeconomic factors linked to fire occurrence through the simulation of future land use/land cover (LULC) change scenarios in the Madrid region (Spain). This region is a clear example of the socioeconomic changes that have been occurring over recent decades in the European Mediterranean as well as their impact on LULC and fire occurrence. Using the LULC changes observed between 1990 and 2006 as a reference, future scenarios were run up to 2025 with the conversion of land use and its effects model. Simultaneously, the relationship between LULC arrangement (interfaces) and historical fire occurrence was calculated using logistic regression analysis and used to quantify changes in future fire occurrence due to projected changes in LULC interfaces. The results revealed that it is possible to explain the probability of fire occurrence using only variables obtained from LULC maps, although the explanatory power of the model is low. In this context, border areas between some LULC types are of particular interest (i.e., urban/forest, grassland/forest and agricultural/forest interfaces). Results indicated that expected LULC changes in Euro-Mediterranean regions, particularly given the foreseeable increase in the wildland¿urban interface, will substantially increase fire occurrence (up to 155 %). This underlines the importance of future LULC scenarios when planning fire prevention measures.
  • Miniatura
    Publicación
    Modeling Land-Use Scenarios in Protected Areas of an Urban Region in Spain
    (Springer, 2018) Gallardo Beltrán, Marta; Martínez Vega, Javier; Camacho Olmedo, MT; Paegelow, M; Mas, JF; Escobar, F; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8519-120X
  • Miniatura
    Publicación
    Assessing Land Use-Cover Changes and Modelling Change Scenarios in Two Mountain Spanish National Parks
    (MDPI, 2017-11-07) Martínez Vega, Javier; Díaz Martín, Andrés; Nava Rodriguez, José Miguel; Echavarría Daspet, Pilar; Gallardo Beltrán, Marta; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8519-120X; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4804-710X
    Land Use-Cover Changes (LUCCs) are one of the main problems for the preservation of biodiversity. Protected Areas (PAs) do not escape this threat. Some processes, such as intensive recreational use, forest fires or the expansion of artificial areas taking place inside and around them in response to their appeal, question their environmental sustainability and their efficiency. In this paper, we analyze the LUCCs that took place between 1990 and 2006 in two National Parks (NPs) belonging to the Spanish network and in their surroundings: Ordesa and Monte Perdido (Ordesa NP) and Sierra de Guadarrama (Guadarrama NP). We also simulate land use changes between 2006 and 2030 by means of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), taking into account two scenarios: trend and green. Finally, we perform a multi-temporal analysis of natural habitat fragmentation in each NP. The results show that the NPs analyzed are well-preserved and have seen hardly any significant LUCCs inside them. However, Socioeconomic Influence Zones (SIZs) and buffers are subject to different dynamics. In the SIZ and buffer of the Ordesa NP, there has been an expansion of built-up areas (annual rate of change = +1.19) around small urban hubs and ski resorts. There has also been a gradual recovery of natural areas, which had been interrupted by forest fires. The invasion of sub-alpine grasslands by shrubs is clear (+2735 ha). The SIZ and buffer of the Guadarrama NP are subject to urban sprawl in forest areas and to the construction of road infrastructures (+5549 ha and an annual rate of change = +1.20). Industrial area has multiplied by 3.3 in 20 years. The consequences are an increase in the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI), greater risk of forest fires and greater fragmentation of natural habitats (+0.04 in SIZ). In the change scenarios, if conditions change as expected, the specific threats facing each NP can be expected to increase. There are substantial differences between the scenarios depending on whether or not incentives are accepted and legal restrictions are respected.