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Martín García, Rodrigo

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0000-0002-9065-7481
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Martín García
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Autor: Galán Gutiérrez, Juan Antonio × search.filters.applied.f.itemDepartamento: Economía de la Empresa y Contabilidad ×

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Mostrando 1 - 4 de 4
  • Miniatura
    Publicación
    Cointegration between the structure of copper futures prices and Brexit
    (Elsevier, 2021-01-15) Galán Gutiérrez, Juan Antonio; Martín García, Rodrigo
    In copper futures trading, ‘contango’ (or ‘forwardation’) is the condition in which the futures price enjoys a premium over the spot price on the London Metal Exchange at the close of the second ring and ‘backwardation’ the contrary. That spread or difference between the two prices is affected by fundamentals such as supply and demand as well as by political, social, environmental and macroeconomic risks, hereafter grouped under the term ‘financialisation factors’. Based on analysis of variations in the BUKHI50P stock index that monitors the impact of Brexit on UK companies, this study shows that in the context of a market shortage, Brexit-related macroeconomics and their effect on local companies are cointegrated with the structure of copper futures prices. Guidelines are also provided for traders on when to short- and when to long-sell to capitalise on the structure of copper futures prices under simultaneous market shortage and adverse macroeconomic circumstances.
  • Miniatura
    Publicación
    Fundamentals vs. Financialization during Extreme Events: From Backwardation to Contango, a Copper Market Analysis during the COVID-19 Pandemic
    (MDPI, 2022-02-11) Galán Gutiérrez, Juan Antonio; Martín García, Rodrigo
    The COVID-19 pandemic has shocked commodities markets in general and base metals markets in particular. The market turmoil made it very difficult to act in the physical market, given the impossibility of establishing or maintaining physical and/or financial positions in a context of high uncertainty. This has happened both in different moments of the development of the pandemic and in geographically different frames. That is why this contribution tries to explain the evolution of warehouses and copper price structure and its utility for hedging in the context of an extreme event. To that end, Granger causality has been used to test whether, during the COVID-19 first wave, the pandemic evolution is cointegrated on one hand with copper futures price structure and, on the other, with the incremental levels of copper stocks. Using 102 official copper prices on London Metal Exchange (LME) trading days, between 13 January 2020 and 5 June 2020 (once the most severe effects of the first wave had been overcome), it was demonstrated that, during the first COVID-19 wave in Europe, the weekly death index variation was cointegrated with the copper future price structure. It has been proven that, in this timelapse, contango in futures price structure has increased its value, and the incremental levels of stock in copper LME warehouses are linked with a stable contango structure. In short, we find that fundamental market effects predominate, in a context in which commodities used to be more financialized. This leads market players, such as traders, miners, and transformers, to move exposures in their hedging structures, under such extreme event situations, in favor of or against either contango or backwardation, so as to derive value from them.
  • Miniatura
    Publicación
    Cointegration between high base metals prices and backwardation: Getting ready for the metals super-cycle
    (Elsevier, 2023-03) Galán Gutiérrez, Juan Antonio; Labeaga Azcona, José María; Martín García, Rodrigo
    This paper is devoted to test agents’ behavior in the markets of hard commodities by trying to distinguish between managing future price structures to hedge their positions and speculating in on prices. We do a triple analysis: cointegration on the time series, structural breaks over the full time series and panel data. The analysis of the full series and the identification of structural breaks allows us to discover the connection between high prices and the negative futures price structure (backwardation) in rising prices scenarios of tin, copper, aluminium, and zinc. Moreover, we obtain that the base metals full matrix (price and futures price structure) is cointegrated in our analysis that uses panel data methods. We believe that these results are important for agents in the markets, as commodity traders or brokers, to maximize profits in their hedging positions.
  • Miniatura
    Publicación
    Cointegration between the structure of copper futures prices and Brexit
    (Elsevier, 2021-06) Galán Gutiérrez, Juan Antonio; Martín García, Rodrigo
    In copper futures trading, ‘contango’ (or ‘forwardation’) is the condition in which the futures price enjoys a premium over the spot price on the London Metal Exchange at the close of the second ring and ‘backwardation’ the contrary. That spread or difference between the two prices is affected by fundamentals such as supply and demand as well as by political, social, environmental and macroeconomic risks, hereafter grouped under the term ‘financialisation factors’. Based on analysis of variations in the BUKHI50P stock index that monitors the impact of Brexit on UK companies, this study shows that in the context of a market shortage, Brexit-related macroeconomics and their effect on local companies are cointegrated with the structure of copper futures prices. Guidelines are also provided for traders on when to short- and when to long-sell to capitalise on the structure of copper futures prices under simultaneous market shortage and adverse macroeconomic circumstances.